Gary Who?
The last time a third party candidate mounted a serious campaign was back in 1992 when Ross Perot ran against Arkansas governor Bill Clinton and President George H. Bush. It was, as far as I can remember, the last time a debate was held between not two candidates, but three. If you’ve never taken the time to go back and check out some of the 1992 debates between Bush, Clinton, and Perot you’d do well to check them out. It doesn’t take long to figure out why Ross Perot was such a serious contender at the time.
A couple of weeks ago, barely ascending the noise of crickets, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson announced that he will be running for President. This is a re-run of his attempt in 2012 when, after failing to compete as a Republican nominee, he set out to establish himself as THE Libertarian party candidate. His drive and determination certainly warranted him a significant amount of media presence but more important was his ability to draw people’s attention to lesser known parties and candidates who were running for President.
By participating in “side” debates, he established himself as the “front runner” among lesser known candidates, but when election time rolled around he was only able to garner less than 1% of the vote. To put that into perspective, Ross Perot was able to get close to 19% of votes in his 1992 run.
A Few Commendations for Johnson.
Let me be as kind as I can to Presidential Candidate Gary Johnson. First, I commend him for his efforts both in the last election, and likely in the upcoming 2016 election, in bringing more and more attention to third, fourth, and even fifth party candidates. America does need more options beyond “the Democrats” and “the Republicans.”
Second, let me commend Johnson on his strategy. In the last election, he started out by jumping into the Republican primaries before parting ways. This time around, he has avoided all the cost and nonsense associated with the hectic GOP primary race. Plus, he is unencumbered by having to “win” the Libertarian nomination. While the Democrats and Republicans are wasting precious resources, time, and energy battling it out in a presidential primary, Gary Johnson gets to coast to the “Main Event” without any of that back and forth. With his focus squarely on the General election, there is some wisdom to the ex-Governor’s plan that is interesting.
Will Johnson’s Run Make a Difference?
Whether or not Gary Johnson will impact the General Election of 2016 is hard to say at this juncture. His announcement was as quiet and uneventful as an announcement can get. Plus, his announcement was quickly overshadowed by Rand Paul’s massive stand against the media. My inclination is that Gary Johnson may shake things up in the presidential race but that impact will likely go as unnoticed as many third party runs have before.
First, if Senator Rand Paul or Senator Ted Cruz get the GOP nomination, Johnson could serve as a vote splitter. As those two candidates rely on Libertarian voters to come out en mass to help them overcome a democratic opponent Gary Johnson could steal away those key libertarian votes and seal the fate of a Paul or Cruz run.
Second, if front runner Donald Trump grabs the GOP nomination then I would expect Gary Johnson, overall, to do much better. The support for Tea Party, libertarian leaning, GOP candidates is strong this election cycle. Those people who like Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and even Marco Rubio may find themselves so disgusted with the idea of a Trump Presidency that they look to Gary Johnson who would better represent them in a General Election. It’s likely that Johnson has this in mind as Trumps polling numbers continue to dominate the rest of the GOP field.
Finally, who the Democratic nominee is may also affect what roll Gary Johnson may play in the general election. Right now the most likely candidates seem to be Hilary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. For those Democrats who find Hilary’s lies too much, or Bernie’s policies a bit off the wall, Gary Johnson becomes an awfully reasonable candidate.
Conclusion
While I find this scenario highly unlikely, Gary Johnson could pull off a Ross Perot-like performance in 2016. If “wide left” Bernie Sanders and “wide right” Donald Trump are the Democratic and Republican nominees, dead center Gary Johnson will start to look quite appealing. Truthfully, whether or not Johnson impacts the overall general election or not, I do appreciate the work he has done to raise awareness of third, fourth, and fifth party candidates. America deserves more than two options. This election cycle more than any other has demonstrated that there a lot of things on both sides of the political fray that make regular Americans scratch their heads. A guy like Gary Johnson, who appeals to democrats and republicans at different points, may be just the type of candidate America is looking for.
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